Our current thinking on the ‘Corona Crash’
This week’s stock market sell-off has been indiscriminate and, with a few rare exceptions, has materially affected the share prices of all companies, large and small.
The Financial Times has highlighted how the S&P500 index, dominated by some fantastic cash rich companies, experienced its quickest fall into a bear market on record, taking just 16 sessions. While the coronavirus, oil price and recessionary fears were the catalyst for the sell-off, the speed and severity of the fall was primarily due to the proliferation of automated computer trading systems which now dominate the trading of large company shares around the world.
In this regard it is noticeable that, at the time of writing, the FTSE AIM index has fallen 23% year to date which is marginally better than the 29% fall experienced by the FTSE All share and broadly in-line with the 22% fall of the S&P500 index respectively. Where smaller less-liquid companies generally bear the brunt of any market sell-off, this is a surprising outcome and very different to what we experienced during the Financial Crisis of 2008-9. It could also reflect the prevalence of many investors in AIM holding shares for Inheritance Tax planning purposes, who are obliged to display more patience.
The impact of the coronavirus is clearly going to be more meaningful for world economies than originally anticipated. Certain sectors are going to experience a challenging period over the next few months as expensive assets remain under-utilised and staff need paying.
Thankfully, Fundamental portfolios have no exposure to oil and gas and resources companies, where even the blue chip names have seen their share prices fall significantly more than the overall market. Shares in Royal Dutch Shell are currently down 41% year to date pushing the forecast yield to 12%, if those forecasts are to be believed!
With recessionary fears now uppermost in the minds of many we are adopting a cautious stance to bargain hunting on the stock market. While some shares appear oversold, this is often for good reason given the questionable short-term outlook and need to support a hefty debt load and interest bill.
We are long-term investors (not short-term traders) and remain focused on investing in businesses whose balance sheets and cash flows offer the desired support in the short term and where there is no immediate risk of debt and interest burdens causing financial distress.
Many of our portfolio companies have the comfort of being in a strong net cash position, whose cash flows are reasonably predictable and continue to support meaningful dividend payments. From our perspective any bargains will therefore need to meet the key criteria of a strong balance sheet and reliable cash flow.
There is no modern precedent for the ‘Corona Crash’ which has the potential to materially disrupt our way of life over what will hopefully be a relatively short period. As the virus spreads, nobody is sure of how or when it will end. Markets dislike uncertainty and therefore the current volatility could continue for some time yet.
We remain confident in the long-term prospects of our investee companies and the markets will inevitably rebound. As we have communicated previously, at some point this can create opportunities to buy companies at irrationally low prices.
As the end of the tax year approaches please don’t forget to use your ISA allowance. There is no requirement to invest cash immediately, which can simply be held on the account to invest at a later time.
If you would like to discuss potential opportunities please email or call Chris or Stephen on 01923 713890.