It’s been a torrid time for the AIM market for around 2 years now, with the  AIM index down just under 40% in that time. Yet things are far better than you might expect and what the declining share prices imply, if you know which companies to look at.

We have assessed 39 AIM stocks, representing ‘Core’ or ‘Satellite’ holdings within our AIM IHT Growth Portfolio (as opposed to our AIM IHT Income Portfolio). The average weighted market capitalisation of all stocks is £683m, which means we are primarily weighted to larger, more resilient AIM companies. What are the reasons to be positive?

In our webinar this week ‘AIM A HALF YEAR UPDATE’ we covered this and other topics. You can view the webinar here and download the slides for AIM a half year update.

1) VALUATION APPEAL
We aren’t fans of the much used PE ratio in assessment of valuation given the number of adjusting items in arriving at ‘E’ and prefer to focus on Free Cash Flow (‘FCF’) in our assessment of profitability and valuation.

The average FCF yield of 4.47% of our 39 stocks is the highest we have ever seen for our AIM portfolio, highlighting their valuation attractions. This figure also adjusts for anomalies in a single year, in which case an average FCF over 3 years has been used.

2) DIVIDEND YIELD
Average forecast dividend yield is 2.65%.
Only 3 of our companies don‘t declare a dividend at all as they reinvesting available cash to support growth at higher rates of return.
Within our AIM IHT Growth book, this is the highest dividend yield ever. The average FCF/dividend cover is 1.71 times, suggesting dividends are well covered by cash flow.

3) STRONG CASH POSITIONS
10 companies are in a position of net debt and we are not currently buyers of 3 of these stocks, whereas 29 companies hold net cash.

Others in a net debt position are well within covenants and have reliable and supportive cash flow and are able to pay down debt rapidly. This puts them in a very strong position.

4) GEOGRAPHICAL EXPOSURE
20 companies have the majority of their revenue coming from the U.K. (11 of these only operate in the U.K.). 2 of these are considered beneficiaries of a more challenging consumer environment.

3 of these are underpinned by UK government contracts (healthcare, infrastructure, energy).

2 Companies are estimated to have an even split in revenue between the U.K. and Overseas.

17 companies (43%) get the majority of their revenue from overseas markets, with some wholly overseas businesses.

5) HEIGHTENED VOLATILITY PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY
Good stocks are being thrown out with the bad.

There is a wonderful opportunity to acquire good ‘growth’ companies on far more modest valuations, which is one of the reasons why several AIM companies have been acquired by private equity firms who are also sniffing around numerous others.

Sentiment around AIM can quickly change.
Back in 2020, a 35% decline turned into a 20% gain. This sort of change can happen very fast.

THOUGHTS FOR THE REST OF 2023
The AIM market has fewer “bad” companies than back in 2007/8 financial crisis. When you look into many of the larger companies and how they are performing (turnover, profitability, order books, cash flow etc), they continue to trade well, although you wouldn’t believe it from the languishing share prices! Once small investors start gaining confidence again, these companies will be well placed for share price increases.

FURTHER INFORMATION
If you or your clients would like to speak to one of our portfolio managers, please contact Business Development Manager, Jonathan Bramall at [email protected] or on 01923 713 894

In this third episode of The Fundamental Asset Podcast, Chris Boxall, co-founder of Fundamental Asset Management, covers three UK small cap stocks which have recently issued positive updates.

Castings (CGS), with squeaky clean reporting and a nice dividend, Kooth’s (KOO) big contract win in the United States and Kitwave’s (KITW) consistent delivery, in more ways than one! In a difficult market for small caps these are some shining lights.

In contrast at the other end of the scale, Chris discusses Marlowe (MRL) and Gooch & Housego (GHH) and their acquisition strategies. The Fundamental team has been doing some deep research into Marlowe (MRL) and Chris shares some of those insights in this conversation.

You can listen to the podcast from the link here (Note: this links you to the Fund Your Retirement site)

Fundamental’s AIM IHT ISA and General portfolio is a discretionary investment management service where clients can obtain 100% mitigation from Inheritance Tax, benefit from the capital growth and income afforded by the AIM market and retain control of their assets.

Fundamental now offers its standard AIM IHT Growth Portfolio, as well as its new AIM IHT Income Portfolio service.

Webinar: AIM a Half Year Update

Join Fundamental Asset Management Co-Founders Chris Boxall & Stephen Drabwell on Tuesday 18th July at 3pm as they look at “AIM a Half Year Update”. The webinar is CPD eligible.

Your seat can be reserved for “AIM a Half Year Update” by going to the quick registration page here. This will also allow you to watch the webinar on demand after the event.

You can find out more about Fundamental Asset Management’s AIM portfolio service from the link here or by contacting [email protected] or calling 01923 713894