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Invest in what you know – know what you invest in

The nature of investing in AIM for Inheritance Tax planning purposes is that investors must directly hold shares in the underlying AIM companies, albeit via a broker’s nominee arrangement. The Inheritance Tax planning benefits would be lost should investment be made via a fund or investment trust arrangement where the investor simply holds shares or units in the underlying fund or investment trust.

This method of direct investment has the advantage that the investor has full knowledge of exactly which stocks he or she is holding and how each is performing. This contrasts with the typical fund arrangement where normally only the largest holdings (typically the top ten) are disclosed by the fund manager.

The portfolio approach means investors are also privy to all the transaction details and therefore have full knowledge of the manager’s actions.

The suspension of the Woodford Equity Income fund, where 300,000 investors have been prevented from accessing their cash since June, has highlighted the problems with investment in open ended funds, where fund managers, administrators, custodian’s and regulators sit between investors and their money. Furthermore, investors have little knowledge of managers trading activity and the complete picture of where performance is really coming from. Indeed, the opaque nature of fund investment appears at odds with the information age in which we live and the demand for greater transparency.

While a portfolio approach is a requirement for investment in AIM for Inheritance Tax planning purposes it can equally apply to general investment portfolios. Fundamental Asset Management’s general investment portfolios, supported by our in-depth research and a good dose of common sensehave delivered excellent performance over the past few years, benefitting from exposure to some terrific companies, both in the UK and overseas. Our clients have enjoyed success with the likes of Apple, Games Workshop, Microsoft and Nestle, to name a few.

With trading costs a fraction of what they used to be and portfolios free of the additional burden of administrators fees and other excessive costs carried by funds, it’s a great time for portfolio investors.

We would argue that it’s also far more enjoyable and reassuring to have full knowledge of one’s investments and to experience the thrill of some terrific stock selections and of course the disappointment of the occasional mistake!

To find out more about our high performing portfolios call Chris or Stephen on 01923 713890


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AIM big guns falter; buying opportunity or better value elsewhere?

The shares of several of AIM’s largest, highest profile, companies have tumbled over the past few months. In this Blog, Fundamental’s Chris Boxall gives his thoughts on the lacklustre performance of some of AIM’s previous high-flyers. Could now be an excellent buying opportunity or were the share prices simply far too over-heated before.

While the fall from grace of Burford Capital (LON:BUR) has stolen the AIM headlines, several of AIM’s other £billion companies have also experienced material share price falls over the past 12 months.

Fevertree Drinks (LON: FEVR), the world’s leading supplier of premium carbonated mixers, has seen its share price slump 45% from the highs reached in August 2018 when it was basking in the perfect environment of a UK heatwave, World Cup and royal wedding. However, despite the share price falls, the shares still trade at a rather punchy 36x forecast earnings estimates for the year ending December 2019 which assume 16% growth in sales.

There is no doubting the appeal of Fevertree’s excellent products and it is a simple business to understand, however, the sky-high valuation has always left little room for error and much depends on growth outside its home UK market, which is starting to appear somewhat saturated.

Group sales in the first half of 2019 only rose 12%, which is decidedly underwhelming for a business on such a rich rating. However, 31% growth from the key US market was more encouraging with the launch of Spiced Orange and Smoky Ginger Ales set to tantalise American’s taste buds. With Fevertree already dominating its home G&T market, we remain wary that the valuation as it stands still hangs on an acceleration of growth in the US and Europe. Without the help of the mania for craft gins which helped drive growth in the UK, this looks a far trickier proposition. A cracking business and huge AIM success story nonetheless, but we are not imbibing yet.

Keywords Studios (LOMN:KWS), the technical services provider to the global video games industry, has been another soaring success on AIM, although it’s acquisition led business model is very different to that of Fevertree, whose stratospheric growth was all of its own internal making. Having acquired a large number of independent studios and underpinned by a booming sector, KWS has turned itself into a significant external development partner to leading video content creators and publishers. Sales have soared over the past few years from only €37m in 2014 to €250m in 2018, with forecasts of €319m for 2020 buoyed by acquisitions and organic growth. Much like Fevertree the shares are 45% off August 2018 highs and currently trade at a more modest 26x forecast adjusted earnings for 2019. Keyword’s acquisition led model results in plenty of adjustments to its financial statements, to the extent that it is hard for us to determine what is the likely norm going forward. We prefer companies like Fevertree where organic growth is the primary driver and have yet to be tempted by Keyword’s model.

Online fashion pioneer ASOS (LON:ASC) long held the crown as AIM’s largest company. Having slipped down to 4th place at the end of September the shares have risen 46% in October following full year results which offered much needed encouragement, pushing the market capitalisation back to £3bn moving ASOS back into second place on AIM, close behind rival Boohoo Group (LON:BOO). While the shares are more than 50% off the highs reached in January 2018 the valuation continues to challenge investors like us. With international retail sales now representing just over 60% of the group total and plenty of investment made to beef up their international operations, ASOS looks well placed to supercharge international growth. However, mass market fashion retail is hard for us to understand and we aren’t tempted to jump onboard yet.

Blue Prism Group (LON:PRSM) is a pioneer in the field of Robotic Process Automation (RPA), an emerging form of business process automation technology where a virtual workforce powered by software robots are trained to automate routine back-office clerical tasks such as form-filling and invoice generation.

Having joined in AIM in March 2016 at a share price of 78p and market capitalisation of only £48m, the shares of this much hyped, loss-making business, with revenues of only £55m in 2018, reached a high of 2635p by September 2018, pushing the market capitalisation over £1.5bn.

While revenue has grown significantly since listing, losses have also escalated as the group has increased its spending on sales and marketing in support of international growth. Revenue for the 6 months ending 30 April 2019 rose 82% to £42m, but operating losses ballooned over 500% to £35m, following material growth in sales and marketing headcount. Thankfully the business had over £100m of cash in the bank available to support this international expansion, having raised £100m in January 2019 at a price of 1100p per share.

We found it somewhat disconcerting that shortly after the material fund raise the Group’s Chief Revenue Officer decided to sell 100,000 shares (the majority of his shareholding), retaining a stake of only 50,000 shares. The subsequent sale in July 2019 of 424,000 shares by the Chief Technology Officer, netting him £6.2m, didn’t offer much comfort either.

The material share sales have been fuel for the bears pushing the share price down 67% to 866p.

While Blue Prism operates in a very exciting growth area it’s also an area which is very hard for an outsider to understand, making it extremely difficult for us to make a credible valuation judgement – just because the shares have declined more than 60% doesn’t mean they are now a bargain!

Of the above AIM heavyweights, we are keeping a close eye on Fevertree. It is highly profitable (operating margins 30%) and cash generative and operates in a sector we can understand, growing organically through its own internal development, slick marketing and expanding distribution. Unlike many of its peers, its financial statements are also mercifully free of accounting adjustments, which goes down well with us.

For further information on Fundamental’s high performing AIM portfolios please email [email protected] or speak to Chris or Stephen by calling 01923 713890.


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Stunning results from this technology star highlight the potential for investment outperformance on AIM 

dotdigital Group plc (LON:DOTD) has rapidly become one of our small cap favourites and the latest results certainly didn’t disappoint.

Founded in 1999 as a web design agency, dotdigital has developed a globally compelling product suite for email and digital marketing.

Having grown significantly since admission to AIM in 2011, when it’s market capitalisation was only £19m, its marketing automation platform is now used by over 70,000 marketers in 156 countries worldwide, empowering global marketers to achieve outstanding results. Global expansion and an expanding range of products  has seen revenues grow eleven fold over the last 8 years and the market capitalisation hit an historic high of £339m in July 2019, when the share price stood at 114p.

The group’s expansion has been boosted by it partnering with many of the leading ecommerce platforms including Magento (now part of Adobe), Microsoft Dynamics 365, Salesforce and Shopify.

Results for the year ending 30 June 2019 were stunning, with revenues rising 19% to £51.3m, including organic growth of +15%, and adjusted operating profit up 25% to £11.8m.

33% growth in adjusted earnings per share to 3.88p was even more impressive and materially ahead of consensus market expectations of 3.4p.

The group acquired Comapi in November 2017 which specialises in ‘live chat’ and has built a software platform that allows clients to communicate directly with their customers via email, SMS and social messaging apps. The Comapi technology has now been fully integrated with dotdigital’s platform, with 19% of the group’s customers using more than one channel, helping to grow average revenue per user 14% to £966 per month.

The all-important recurring revenue as a percentage of total revenue increased to 86% thereby offering excellent visibility into the future.

The key partnerships have also been strengthened with revenue through Magento up 27% to £11.8m.

Despite the ongoing impact of GDPR, revenue from the EMEA region delivered double digit growth, but more distant overseas markets were the star performers. Having initially struggled to progress in the US, the group now appears to have found its feet with revenue in this key geography rising 27% to $9.0m. The APAC region was even better, reporting revenue growth of 83% to AUS$3.8m.

dotdigital comments how innovation is at the core of everything and they are committed to the continuous evolution of the technology, reflected in the considerable investment in the period. Despite this, excellent operating cash inflow of £12.3m still resulted in free cash flow of £6.3m, boosting year end cash to £19.3m.

The outlook was extremely encouraging with the first quarter of the current 2019/20 financial year starting well.

The house broker commented how “there are few companies we can point to which consistently deliver 15% organic growth, PBT margins over 25%, and reliable cash conversion” reiterating their target price of 135p, 37% above the current share price.

Having held the shares for several years and remaining enthusiastic buyers, we would echo their comments.

To discover other exciting investment opportunities on AIM please contact Chris or Stephen at small cap investment specialists Fundamental Asset Management by calling 01923 713890 or emailing [email protected] 

 

 

 


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AIM – the Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Investing in the shares of qualifying AIM companies can attract 100% relief from inheritance tax and is a proven tax planning method, avoiding the costs associated with a trust, or the risks associated with gifts. It’s also been a rather good investment strategy to follow, as long as you know what you are doing!

Fundamental Asset Management’s AIM portfolios can also be accessed through many leading adviser wrap platforms, including Transact, Standard Life Elevate and Nucleus, making it a viable tax planning solution for advisers who don’t want the adminstrative burden of administering assets on multiple platforms.

Supported by extensive in-house research and due diligence, we have successfully managed AIM portfolios for Inheritance Tax planning purposes since 2004, delivering outstanding growth, well ahead of mainstream funds and stock market indices. We have also helped families save large amounts of Inheritance Tax in the process.

However, it hasn’t all been plain sailing and over this period we have experienced everything that AIM has to offer, from the highs of AB Dynamics, whose shares have risen over 2500% since listing six years ago, to the lows of Patisserie Holdings, a café chain worth £400m which succumbed to a massive fraud and disappeared overnight.

We have seen it all, from the boom times of 2007, when AIM had nearly 1700 companies, to the depths of the financial crisis, which saw many investors abandon AIM entirely.

Come and join us on 2nd October 2019 at the Landmark Hotel, London (www.landmarklondon.co.uk) to find out what investing in AIM for Inheritance Tax planning purposes is really all about.

Numbers are limited so please RSVP by emailing [email protected] to reserve your place at this FREE event.
Alternatively, please call 01923 713890.

Venue: Landmark Hotel. 222 Marylebone Rd, Marylebone, London NW1 6JQ


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Crowdfunding continues to thrive, but the valuations look crazy – better value on AIM?

The latest news that leading UK based crowdfunding platform Seedrs raised a further £4.5m in a new funding round has highlighted the appeal of rapidly growing, early stage companies to UK investors, at least relative to the duller offerings on the UK stock market.

However, while there is no doubting the growth appeal of early stage businesses, we struggle to understand the high valuations many of these are achieving on the crowdfunding platforms when raising new money. In many cases money is being raised based on a mere idea, rather than a viable business. We fear this investing bubble will ultimately see small private investors lose out significantly, not simply through business failures, but as these cash consuming start-ups are subsequently forced to raise money at far more modest valuations.

A prime example of the valuation folly on crowd funding sites was recently illustrated by WeSwap, the online peer-to-peer travel money platform.

Back in November 2018 WeSwap was meeting prospective investors with a view to listing on AIM but failed to attract interest at the desired valuation. Admittedly it wasn’t a great time to list with stock markets going through one of their periodic sell-offs, nevertheless, the proposed valuation of more than £40m for a loss making business in a highly competitive arena looked crazy to us.

In 2018, WeSwap generated modest revenues of just over £1.5m with losses over £2.5m. As of June 2019, it had over 500,000 users who had exchanged more than £255m.

Fast forward 7 months and WeSwap raised a further £2.5m on Seedrs at a pre-money valuation of an eye-popping £41.6m.

Comparison can be made to AIM listed Ramsdens (LON:RFX), the diversified, financial services provider and retailer, which has its own thriving foreign currency exchange business.

For its last financial year ending March 2019 Ramsdens grew revenue 17% to £46.8m and underlying profit before tax was up 4% to £6.7m. Its foreign currency business alone served 705,000 customers, exchanging £496m of currency and generating gross ‘profit’ of £11.6m. It also rewarded shareholders with an appetising dividend of 7.2p per share, equating to a yield of 3.7% at the current share price.

We acknowledge that Ramsdens may not be growing as rapidly as WeSwap, however, unlike WeSwap it is demonstrating an ability to grow while generating profits and cash.

Many investors seem fixated that online offerings like WeSwap represent the only route to investment success. Yet the success of many online businesses is dependent on spending huge sums on marketing, much of it swelling the coffers of Google and Facebook. Contrastingly, while a High Street based business like Ramsdens addresses a much smaller potential customer base from its individual sites, its multi-faceted offering, of which foreign currency is just one element, is a beneficiary of falling rental costs.

Backers of crowd funded businesses will ultimately require an exit and a stock market listing, notably AIM, is one such route for this. Yet UK stock market investors seem very reluctant to overpay for loss-making, early stage businesses, addressing relatively small markets. It’s very different in the US, where the market is so much larger and the potential rewards thereby much greater.

While valuation concerns persist with many AIM companies, they look relative bargains compared to their peers on crowdfunding sites. Furthermore, as Sterling is set to languish over Brexit we expect to see overseas buyers keeping a close eye on modestly valued UK listed companies.

August saw our AIM portfolio holding Sanderson Group (LON:SND) snapped-up by a US based acquirer and we expect to see more over opportunistic moves of this type over the coming months.

If you are interested in benefiting from our expertise investing in AIM and smaller quoted companies, please speak Chris or Stephen on 01923 713890 or email [email protected]


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Office of Tax Simplification Inheritance Tax Review – second report: what does it really mean for AIM?

The Office of Tax Simplification (‘OTS’) published its long-awaited review on reforming Inheritance Tax. A first report released in November 2018 dealt with the administration of estates while the latest report focuses on how Inheritance Tax could be made “easier to understand and more intuitive and simpler to operate”.

The stand-out headlines in the latest report were recommendations to reduce the seven year rule for gifting assets to five years and to increase the lifetime gift allowance from the current £3,000 to something more meaningful.

The press has also been keen to jump on a mention in the report of Business Property Relief (‘BPR’) and whether the treatment of AIM shares is within the policy intent of BPR.

Paragraph 5.19 of the report states:
…in relation to third party investors in AIM traded shares, BPR is not necessary to prevent the business from being broken up or sold in order to fund the payment of Inheritance Tax. This raises a question about whether it is within the policy intent of BPR to extend the relief to such shares, in particular where they are no longer held by the family or individuals originally owning the business.

Firstly, it should be emphasised that this was only an ‘observation’ and no further reference was made to AIM in the report in the conclusions or recommendations. However, in our opinion the report makes a reasonable observation regarding AIM.

BPR has never been wholly relevant to AIM in terms of preventing a business from being broken up or sold in order to fund the payment of Inheritance Tax. The relief in respect of smaller listed growth companies, is surely in place to attract third party investment and there are indications that the Treasury has always considered it thus. This is backed up by paragraph 5.18 of the report which states:

The OTS notes that the government’s response to the Patient Capital Review consultation published in November 2017 stated the government’s commitment to protecting the important role that BPR plays in supporting family owned businesses and growth investment in AIM and other growth markets. In correspondence and meetings, the OTS has heard evidence of its importance in meeting that objective.

To reiterate, contrary to what has been suggested by some of the more sensationalist headlines in the mainstream press, the OTS report has not recommended the removal of BPR on AIM. 

However, the OTS report has recommended that estates should not benefit from Capital Gains Tax dying with the deceased if the same assets in the estate are also benefitting from an IHT relief or exemption. In this regard Recommendation 5 on page 44 states:

Where a relief or exemption from Inheritance Tax applies, the government should consider removing the capital gains uplift and instead provide that the recipient is treated as acquiring the assets at the historic base cost of the person who has died.

The Treasury has said it will respond to the report in due course and consider its recommendations.

Last year’s Patient Capital Review highlighted a huge gap in funding in the UK for smaller growth companies and the removal of BPR on AIM will only exacerbate this, therefore we remain cautiously optimistic that radical changes are unlikely.

I think it’s worth reflecting that AIM as a viable Inheritance Tax planning option would not exist at all if the investment credentials didn’t stack-up in the first place.

Our AIM for Inheritance Tax portfolios have materially outperformed leading stock market indices for many years due to the compelling growth characteristics of the companies in which we invest, which just so happen to be accompanied by an attractive tax benefit for UK shareholders.

Successful AIM companies like RWS Holdings, AB Dynamics and many others have not seen their share prices rise due to the weight of demand from those investing for IHT planning purposes, they have risen based on the performance of the underlying businesses.

The great benefit of AIM is that it is market where share registers are dominated by family, founders and senior management.

Studies from Credit Suisse, Boston Consulting Group and Bain & Company have highlighted how superior growth and returns have been a feature of family and insider-controlled companies.

The great risk with a tax change of the type feared is if it pushes executive founders to sell early and exit the business, thereby depriving it of a valuable asset. For example, both RWS Holdings and AB Dynamics have benefited from the ongoing involvement of founder shareholders; Andrew Brode, Exec Chairman of RWS, has not sold a share since the business listed on AIM in 2003.

You can find out more about our high performing AIM portfolio service from the link here


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Results season offers plenty of encouragement for our AIM portfolios

Results and trading updates over the past few weeks from our AIM universe of companies have been generally encouraging, with growing profits and cash generation supporting investment in the business and raised dividends. Here is a brief summary of the highlights from some.

Tristel (LON: TSTL), the manufacturer of infection prevention and contamination control products, announced the regulatory approval of its Duo High-Level disinfectant product in China. Duo is a hand-held dispenser which applies Tristel’s powerful chlorine dioxide chemistry as a foam to the surface of medical devices.

Frustrated by the length of time it is taking to gain regulatory approvals in the United States, Tristel is placing greater emphasis on China where it proposes to sell Duo through its own sales force. Our associates Investor’s Champion provide in-depth coverage of Tristel here.

Remaining in the medical sector, AIM portfolio company EMIS Group (LON:EMIS) announced decent results for the year ended 31 December 2018, growing revenues across all key segments and raising its dividend 10%. Having had a good look at the business we sense that new Chief Exec Andy Thorburn is looking to make more of the group’s fantastic position in the market and deploy the excellent cash flow to greater effect. Post results it announced the sale of its non-core Specialist & Care segment for £14.0m.

Adept Technology Group (LON: ADT), formerly Adept Telecom, has grown into of the UK’s leading providers of managed IT services. The trading update for the year ending 31 March 2019 confirmed a 13% rise in revenues and underlying EBITDA, in line with expectations. The full year dividend was lifted 12% to 9.80p. We like the recurring revenue attributes of this business from its sticky customer base, which results in lots of delightful cash being generated.

The share price of Smart Metering Systems (LON: SMS), the leading installer and manager of electric and gas meters, has been on a bit of a roller-coaster ride over the past few months. The UK government’s mandated smart meter programme requires all UK households and small businesses to be offered a smart meter by the end of 2020 and SMS will be a prime beneficiary of this huge change. Needles  to say this substantial government initiative has had a few problems.

There are approximately 53 million gas and electricity meters in the UK and, as of the end of December 2018, there were 14.9 million smart and advanced meters installed in homes and businesses across the country. SMS now has agreements with twelve of the independent energy suppliers, equivalent to a potential 8 million meter points highlighting the potential for its business.

While the domestic smart meter exchange may be extended into 2023, SMS will still be a long-term winner, thereafter generating reliable, index-linked returns from its vast portfolio of meter assets. The financial statements and high level of debt taken on to support the acquisition of meter assets take some understanding, however, the operating cash flow hints at the future potential.

Anexo Group (LON: ANX), which only arrived on AIM in June 2018, issued a promising set of results for the year ended 31 December 2018. Anexo is a specialist integrated credit hire and legal services business targeting the impecunious not at fault motorist, who does not have the financial means or access to a replacement vehicle, notably motorbike riders and motorbike couriers. Anexo provides customers with an end-to-end service including the provision of Credit Hire vehicles, assistance with repair and recovery, and claims management services.

This could be a fascinating business to follow as it endeavours to settle the large number of outstanding cases on its books and increase the cash recoveries. With a growing number of in-house litigators it’s looking promising, if little understood by the investment community. You can read an in-depth commentary on Anexo Group here from our associates Investor’s Champion here.

Away from AIM and returning to the main UK market, general portfolio holding Games Workshop (LON:GAW), the creator of fantasy miniatures, including Warhammer, confirmed that sales and profits have continued to climb, with pre-tax profit for the year ending 2 June 2019 rising 7% to £80m. Shareholders are rewarded with both a rising share price and lifted dividend – what more can one ask for!

As usual, there is plenty of variety from the stock market and some great companies to invest in. Please contact Chris or Stephen to find out more about our specialist investment services, including the high performing AIM for Inheritance Tax planning service, which has now been running for more than 15 years.


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Looking for ISA bargains ?

With the end of the tax year fast approaching, many investors will be looking to use their ISA allowance. Here is our brief introduction to some potentially interesting ISA bargains.

AIM shares have only been permissible investments in ISAs since August 2013, but since then they have proved a very popular choice, notably for those investing with an eye on potential inheritance tax savings.

AIM had a difficult 2018 and despite a strong opening to 2019, many excellent smaller companies are trading at modest valuations, offering compelling dividend yields and decent growth prospects.

Chris Boxall and Stephen Drabwell, co-founders of Fundamental Asset Management, would be delighted to discuss the investment opportunities on AIM through our bespoke AIM portfolio service. Please email [email protected] or call 01923 713890.

Our recent Blog commented on Redde (LON:REDD), a substantial business where the dividend yield had risen to more than 11%. While the shares have rallied marginally since our original Blog, the forecast yield is still over 10%.

The share price of Fulcrum Utility Services (LON:FCRM), an independent energy and multi-utility infrastructure and services provider, has been extremely weak over the past few months. Fulcrum’s primary business is the design and installation of utility services from single site properties to large complex multi-site projects. It also owns and operates gas and electrical assets that connect properties to the main UK gas and electricity networks.

Fulcrum has delivered consistent earnings growth over the past 4 years and in 2018 acquired the Dunamis Group, an electrical infrastructure services company. Unfortunately, the Dunamis business has experienced some Brexit induced contracts delays which has accelerated the share price decline. While the Dunamis business is made up of larger, lower margin projects, it’s operating in a very dynamic market with a notable opportunity in the area of electrical vehicle charging.

This week’s trading update provided some reassurance that bsuiness was not as bad as many believed it to be. The modest earnings multiple of 9x current year earnings falling to 8x for the year ending March 2020 and a forecast dividend yield of 6.3% means Fulcrum warrants a closer look for ISA investors.

The Property Franchise Group (LON:TPFG), one of the UK’s largest property franchises, has seen its share price pulled down principally due to fears surrounding the impact of the tenant fee ban on its business. The ban is due to be introduced on 1st June 2019 with the impact on group revenue less than originally anticipated.

TPFG was founded in 1986 and encompasses a diverse portfolio of longstanding high-street brands and a hybrid, no sale no fee agency, called EweMove.

The lion’s share of group revenue is made up of service fees (royalties) charged to franchisees, principally relating to lettings business. Therefore, this is a business which generates relatively stable revenues, high operating margins and returns on equity and excellent cash flow. With modest capital expenditure requirements, the attractive cash flow is able to support a generous dividend, with the yield just over 6.5 per cent at the current share price.

Fundamental AIM for Inheritance Tax planning portfolios may hold shares in the companies mentioned in this article.

Our associates Investor’s Champion publish in-depth research reports on many exciting AIM companies.


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Inheritance tax planning AIM favourite yielding 11% – what’s the catch?

The share price of AIM quoted Redde (LON:REDD), the provider of accident management services and an inheritance tax planning AIM favourite, has been in the doldrums ever since the announcement of its interim results at the end of February 2019. Recent news of its failure to secure the renewal of a sizeable contract has also pulled the shares down further to 4 year lows, this has also seen the forecast dividend yield rise to 11 per cent, but is this compelling return sustainable?

At first glance the interim results for the 6 months ending 31 December 2018 were actually pretty good with revenue up 14% to £291m and pre-tax profit up 7.2% to £21.3m. An interim dividend of 5.50p, equivalent to a yield of 5.5 per cent, highlighted the inheritance tax planning appeal of this AIM company.  However, cash flow wasn’t quite as rosy as usual, with claims taking longer to settle and debtor days rising to 109 from 105 previously. Reported net debt at 31 December 2018 had also risen to £41.2m from £8.5m at 30 June 2018, however in mitigation, this relates to asset backed finance leases, rather than bank debt, so is fairly low risk. The Group increased its car fleet 27% to meet increased hire days which meant finance leases rose.

It’s worth noting that the business doesn’t have any bank borrowings, reflected in the finance costs which only encompass interest on finance leases and bank facility fees; the latter for a facility which isn’t even used.

Management cautioned that growth for the remainder of the second half would not have the beneficial effect experienced last year from the “Beast from the East” – Redde was a beneficiary of the terrible weather.

While the interim results tempered investors’ enthusiasm for the shares, it was the contract renewal announcement which really accelerated the selling.

The failure to secure the renewal of a hire and repair contract with a large insurer won’t have any immediate effect for the current financial year ending June 2019 but will impact 2020. Management now expects a net reduction in sales of approximately £111.9m (representing 18.2 per cent. of consensus expectations) and a reduction in adjusted operating profits of approximately £4.7m (representing 8.7 per cent. of consensus expectations).

Thankfully the pipeline of new business remains encouraging with a number of live prospects, and management remains hopeful it can fill the void.

The stated £4.7m reduction in operating profits on sales of £111.9m suggests the lost contract was at lower margins than the majority of the Group’s business.

At the current share price of 105p the shares trade at an estimated 8.2x revised earnings estimates of 12.8p for the financial year ending June 2020. This looks a very modest rating for a business which will remain highly cash generative and should therefore be able to support the dividend.

Having consistently raised its dividend every year for the past 6 years, the dividend is now forecast to remain flat at 11.7p, moving the forecast dividend yield to approximately 11% at the current share price. That looks appealing to patient, long term inheritance tax planning investors, looking out for some extra income.

There will be concerns that the failure to renew the contract could be the start of other problems, however Redde is well diversified across contracts large and small, regularly winning and losing contracts with insurers. As at 30 June 2018, the most significant five customers represented 23% (2017: 25%) of receivables. That implies an acceptable level of customer concentration.

While the car fleet has grown materially, they have the flexibility to trim this back at short notice.

Hargreaves Lansdown’s reporting of a claimed JPMorgan target price of 11p (rather than 111p!) wasn’t terribly helpful for the share price either – we suggest HL should pay closer attention to their reporting!

Directors have shown their confidence in the business by snapping up £185,000 of shares in aggregate.

Fundamental AIM for Inheritance Tax planning portfolios hold shares in Redde


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AIM needs more newcomers

A recent update from our associates Investor’s Champion highlighted how February 2019 was yet another poor month for new arrivals on AIM, with only 1 proper new arrival and 7 more departures. AIM certainly needs to be re-energised!

While the quality of companies on AIM has improved considerably over the 15 years we have been investing in AIM for Inheritance Tax planning purposes, we are becoming concerned by the shortage of suitably attractive new arrivals.

AIM’s reduced appeal to many high growth businesses is countered by its evident attraction to the legal and professional services sector. Of the 7 new arrivals in December 2018, which was AIM’s best month for IPOs in a long time, one of the newcomers (finnCap Group) was a corporate broker and two (Manolete Partners and Litigation Capital Management) were providers of litigation funding solutions. While profitable businesses, they are unlikely to set investor’s pulses racing in the same way a fast growing technology company might, although we quite like the look of Manolete! The litigation funders join several legal services groups already enjoying life on AIM.

Investor’s Champion pointed out that, as AIM has struggled, its rival Nasdaq First North, which encompasses junior markets across the Nordic region, has started to attract a growing number of small technology companies. Many companies on First North also carry similar attractions for Inheritance Tax planning purposes to those on AIM. First North welcomed 2 newcomers in February, one a video game development studio, the other a cloud-based software group, just the sort of innovative high growth businesses needed on AIM. Should the flow of attractive newcomers to First North continue, it could become a viable market for those with an eye on mitigating potential inheritance tax.

AIM may soon have another rival to contend with in the rejuvenated Nex Exchange, where Oliver Hemsley, the founder of UK stockbroker Numis Securities, is looking to take control and inject new capital into Nex, which will also be given a new name. Nex could find some willing supporters in those investing for Inheritance Tax planning purposes.

Thankfully there remains a large pool of attractive AIM companies in which to invest, it would simply be nice for this pool to grow, rather than shrink, as has been the case for the past few months.